80 Percent EV Uptake, Are We Dreaming?

How long it will take for 80% of Australia’s vehicle fleet to be electric?

It is difficult to predict with certainty how long it will take for 80% of Australia’s vehicle fleet to be electric, as this will depend on a variety of factors, including government policies, technological advancements, consumer behavior’s, and infrastructure developments.

However, according to a report published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) in 2021, it is expected that electric vehicles (EVs) will make up 70% of new car sales in Australia by 2040. This indicates a significant shift towards EVs in the country, but it is important to note that this does not necessarily mean that 80% of the entire vehicle fleet will be electric by that time. Currently, electric vehicle adoption in Australia is relatively low compared to other developed countries. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2020, only 0.6% of new car sales in Australia were electric. However, the Australian government has set a target for all new car sales to be electric by 2035, which could accelerate the transition.

To reach the 80% target, there would need to be a much more rapid uptake of EVs, potentially driven by aggressive government policies and incentives, significant advancements in EV technology and battery production, and the expansion of charging infrastructure across the country. Without such changes, it could take several decades or more to achieve 80% EV penetration in Australia’s vehicle fleet.

As of 2021, there were approximately 3.6 million vehicles registered to businesses in Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This represents around 18% of the total registered vehicle fleet in Australia. Overall, fleets are likely to transition to electric vehicles quicker than passenger vehicles due to lower total cost of ownership, environmental regulations and sustainability goals, range and charging infrastructure, performance and reliability, and brand image and customer demand.

Chris Crossman, EVOS CTO said “The fleet market is key to transitioning to electric for Australia to meet EV targets. EVOS is creating the technology to help fleets transition to electric by simplifying the charging process and focusing on technology that reduces the cost of energy. By maximising the benefits of electric vehicles, we believe we can expedite the transition said Crossman

Assuming that the current rate of electric vehicle adoption in Australia continues to grow at a similar pace and there are no significant changes in government policies or technological advancements, it may take several decades for 80% of Australia’s vehicle fleet to be electric. However, if there are significant investments in infrastructure and supportive policies, such as incentives and subsidies, the transition could happen faster. Crossman said that with the right government incentives and EV models in the market there is no reason why we could not have 80% of new vehicles been electric by 2030.